TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 29, 2019
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the previous trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average. The AUDUSD continues to look indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal support and resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7085, 0.7115, 0.7200, 0.7220 and 0.7230. Price action is formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern and the moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the AUDUSD may attempt a bullish move.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish. The EURGBP has moved above the moving averages and the trend resistance area, suggesting that the current downtrend could be coming to an end. The moving averages confirm the lack of selling momentum – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the recent lows at 0.8620. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8760 and 0.8860.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been moving off the horizontal level at 1.1420. Price has been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, all signalling that the EURUSD may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1420, 1.1390 and 1.1345. Price may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.1455, 1.1485 and 1.1535.
The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD continues to uptrend. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the GBPUSD could attempt a move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3080, 1.3015 and 1.2985. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3210.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the shorter-term moving average. The NZDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6845, 0.6825 and 0.6800. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.6870.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3180, 1.3200, 1.3230, 1.3240, 1.3310 and 1.3365.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.
A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF continues to be under the recent consolidation and has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady – confirming the downside momentum. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9930, 0.9970 and 0.9985.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.
A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 109.15 and the horizontal resistance at 109.90. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 109.00 and 108.05.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.
A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since moved higher. GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1303.05, 1299.45, 1296.95 and 1295.55.
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