TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 28, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD has been bullish. Price is above the moving averages and the trend resistance area, suggesting that the recent downtrend is now over. The moving averages are about to cross bullish, signalling the current upside momentum. The AUDUSD is now looking indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7085, 0.7115, 0.7160, 0.7210, 0.7220 and 0.7230.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed around the shorter-term moving average. Price continues to downtrend and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.8760. A bearish move may find support around the newly formed swing low at 0.8620.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a BOE speech at 1430 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish and is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1295, 1.1345, 1.1390, 1.1430, 1.1455, 1.1485, 1.1535 and 1.1570.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the previous resistance at 1.3080 and the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish. The GBPUSD continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous diagonal resistance (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3080, 1.3015 and 1.2985.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1430 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been bullish. Price has swung above the recent consolidation are and the moving averages are bullish, all suggesting that the NZDUSD may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.6800 and 0.6850.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3180, 1.3230, 1.3240, 1.3305 and 1.3365.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady – confirming the downside momentum. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9930, 0.9970 and 0.9985.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal resistance at 109.90. The USDJPY is currently indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 109.20-109.90. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 109.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been very bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area, suggesting that GOLD may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous resistance levels at 1296.90 and 1295.50, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. Price may continue to find resistance around 1303.00.

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