TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 24, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7115, 0.7160 and 0.7205.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP closed below the recent swing low at 0.8760 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support and swing low at 0.8760. The EURGBP may continue to find support around 0.8700.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The ECB will announce the official interest rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price is moving sideways and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are also moving sideways. The EURUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1345 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1405. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.1310. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.1425, 1.1455 and 1.1485.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The ECB will announce the official interest rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closes above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. As also suggested, price has since been finding resistance around the diagonal resistance area. The GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 1.2985 and around the diagonal support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the diagonal resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been slightly bullish but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6595, 0.6705, 0.6770, 0.6800 and 0.6850.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and has been moving higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous resistance at 1.3305 and around the trend support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price moved below the tight horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF was up-trending but is now looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9715, 0.9800, 0.9850, 0.9920, 0.9960 and 0.9985. If price closes above the resistance at 0.9985, the USDCHF could continue to move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing of the trend support area and the horizontal resistance at 109.90. The USDJPY is up-trending but recent price action has been sideways. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 107.80, 108.05, 109.00 and 109.90. If price closes above the horizontal resistance at 109.90, the USDJPY may attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD reversed around the horizontal level at 1286.25 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1277.50, 1279.70, 1286.25 and 1287.30 and around the diagonal resistance area. If GOLD closes below the horizontal support at 1277.50, price could attempt a bearish move lower.