TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 23, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around 0.7120. The AUDUSD is steadily down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7150, 0.7205, 0.7220 and 0.7230. Price may continue to find support around 0.7115.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the recent swing low at 0.8765 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has been down-trending but is now looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and have crossed bearish. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8760, 0.8860, 0.8880 and 0.8965. If price closes below the horizontal support at 0.8760, the EURGBP could attempt a bearish move lower and continue to downtrend.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has moved above the trend resistance area and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1310, 1.1345, 1.1405, 1.1425, 1.1455 and 1.1485.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the GBPUSD is indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2835 and the recent swing high at 1.2990. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung above the recent trend resistance area. The NZDUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6705, 0.6770, 0.6800 and 0.6850.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish. The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3305 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A Canadian retail sales figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF is up-trending but is currently moving within a tight horizontal channel at 0.9960-0.9980. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9920. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the USDCHF may attempt a move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the trend support area. Price has been up-trending. The moving averages have become tight and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 106.60, 107.80, 108.05, 109.00 and 109.85. If the USDJPY closes above the recent swing high at 109.85, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is still below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that GOLD could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1286.25 and 1287.30, around the dynamic resistance of the longer-term moving average and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1280.60 and 1277.50.

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