TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 21, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD was rejected around the diagonal resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6865, 0.7065, 0.7120, 0.7150 and 0.7230.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP  is currently finding resistance around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8880 and 0.8965. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the newly formed swing low at 0.8765.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price continues to be bearish and move lower. The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1405, 1.1425, 1.1455 and 1.1485. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.1350 and 1.1310.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal support at 1.2845 and around the diagonal support area. The moving averages are moving sideways and the GBPUSD is below the moving averages, all suggesting that price may struggle to swing higher. A bullish move may stall or reverse around either of the moving averages, around the horizontal resistance at 1.2990 and the diagonal resistance area. A strong move lower may find support around 1.2700, 1.2620 and 1.2455.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has swung lower and is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6735, 0.6770, 0.6800 and 0.6850. The NZDUSD could continue to find support around 0.6710.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3180 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3310. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF continues to be bullish and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9920.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has continued to move higher and be bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 109.00 and around the trend support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. GOLD is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1286.25, 1287.30, 1295.55 and 1296.85. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1280.60 and 1277.50.

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