TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 18, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding resistance around the diagonal resistance area. Price is looking indecisive but also slightly bearish. The moving averages confirm the bearish bias – they are bearish and steady. The AUDUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7145 and the recent highs at 0.7230. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7120, 0.7075 and 0.6870.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has continued to be bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the diagonal resistance and around the horizontal levels at 0.8840 and 0.8880. The EURGBP may continue to find support around 0.8765.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around 1.3175. The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1425, 1.1455 and 1.1485. Price could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.1375 and 1.1310.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance at 1.2915, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that price may attempt to swing lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6800 and 0.6850. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.6735, 0.6710 and 0.6595.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed off the range resistance area at 1.3310. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The USDCAD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3180 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3310. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A Canadian CPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish and has been rejected around 0.9955 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9920 and 0.9850. Price may continue to find resistance around 0.9955.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and the trend support area and has since been bullish. The USDJPY is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous resistance at 109.00, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD continues to lack trend momentum and move sideways. The moving averages are tight and are crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is moving within a horizontal channels at 1286.25-1296.85. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channels and if GOLD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1277.50 and 1265.70.