TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 16, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been up-trending but is currently moving sideways. The AUDUSD has become indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7175 and the recent highs at 0.7230. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7145, 0.7120 and 0.7075.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average and the horizontal level at 0.8975. The EURGBP is bearish and is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8880, 0.8965 and 0.8975, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at at 0915 UTC today. A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD found support around the horizontal level at 1.1420 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since moved lower. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1455, 1.1485 and 1.1535. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal levels at 1.1350 and 1.1310.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around the horizontal support at 1.2700. Price is now looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The GBPUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2700 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2915. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.2620 and 1.2455.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at at 0915 UTC today. A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the previous trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 0.6800-0.6850. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the NZDUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6775, 0.6765 and 0.6715.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD is indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages are moving sideways also – confirming the market indecision. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.3180-1.3310. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bullish. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that the USDCHF could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9800 and 0.9790. Price could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9900, 0.9920 and 0.9955.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 107.80-109.00. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDJPY closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 110.20 and 111.40. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 106.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to lack trend momentum and move sideways. The moving averages are tight and are crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. GOLD is moving within 2 horizontal channels; 1286.25-1296.85 and 1277.50-1296.85. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of both horizontal channels and if price closes out of either channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1265.70.

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