TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 15, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and is currently bullish. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7175, 0.7145, 0.7120 and 0.7070. The AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7230.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and the previous support at 0.8945 and has since swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be under the consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the EURGBP could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8930, 0.8945, 0.8955 and 0.8975. Price could continue to find support around 0.8880.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The European Central Bank (ECB) have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1500 UTC today. UK parliament will start voting on the Brexit deal from 1900 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. The EURUSD continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1310, 1.1350, 1.1420, 1.1455, 1.1535 and 1.1570.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. The President of the ECB will speak at 1500 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2805 and 1.2705. Price could continue to find resistance around 1.2915.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. UK parliament will start voting on the Brexit deal from 1900 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed around the previous swing high at 0.6800 and has since been finding resistance around the previous trend support area. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6835, 0.6800, 0.6775 and 0.6765 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The NZDUSD may continue to find resistance around the previous trend support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD is coming off the 23.6% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is currently in a retrace phase. Shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3305. The moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that the USDCAD could fail to swing lower. Price could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3245 and 1.3180.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9715, 0.9790, 0.9850, 0.9900 and 0.9920.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price is still moving sideways and is indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal support at 107.80 and the horizontal resistance at 109.00. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 110.20 and 111.40. A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 106.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 1277.50 and the horizontal resistance at 1296.85. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 1265.70, 1264.35 and 1255.65.

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