TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 07, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has found resistance around 0.7140. Price has been bullish and has swung above the key resistance at 0.7075, signalling that the AUDUSD could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7075, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7140 and 0.7200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8930, 0.8960, 0.9055 and 0.9085. If price closes below the horizontal support at 0.8930, the EURGBP could attempt a bearish move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the horizontal levels at 1.1350 and 1.1420. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1270, 1.1310, 1.1350, 1.1420, 1.1470, 1.1480 and 1.1485.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has almost reversed the recent sell-off. The GBPUSD has re-entered the consolidation area and could become indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2455, 1.2540, 1.2620, 1.2735 and 1.2800.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been bullish. Price is above a key resistance level and swing high, suggesting that the NZDUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages have crossed bullish – confirming the potential upside momentum. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous resistance at 0.6720 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6790 and 0.6875.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDCAD could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1315 and 1.3495 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9790, 0.9805, 0.9850, 0.9900, 0.9920, 0.9955 and 0.9980. If the USDCHF closes below the lowest level at 0.9790, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 110.20. An attempt to swing lower could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 106.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the horizontal level at 1278.00. Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1277.50, 1265.70 and 1264.35. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling market indecision. Price may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1277.50 and 1297.00.

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