TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 04, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has formed a swing lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The recent retrace move has been strong and the moving averages are starting to move sideways, all signalling that price may struggle to swing lower – the downtrend may be over. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6870, 0.7075, 0.7090 and 0.7140.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price action has formed a large swing higher but the EURGBP continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8930, 0.8960, 0.9055, 0.9065 and 0.9085.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1270, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1420, 1.1470, 1.1480 and 1.1485. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bearish. Price is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the GBPUSD could attempt another bearish move. Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the 61.8% Fib level and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2735. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.2620, 1.2540 and 1.2455.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been retracing the recent bearish swing. The NZDUSD has been in a downtrend but the recent retrace move has been strong and the moving averages are moving sideways, all signalling that selling momentum may be weakening. Price may become indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6595, 0.6720, 0.6745 and 0.6790.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved below the range support area and has since been bearish. The USDCAD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous range support at 1.3565. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal level at 1.3415.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has failed to swing lower. Price has become indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9790, 0.9805, 0.9920 and 0.9955.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY continues to downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 110.20. An attempt to swing lower could find support around 106.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is up-trending. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that GOLD may continue to move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1278.00, 1265.70 and 1264.35. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

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