TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 27, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average. The AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7085, 0.7145 and 0.7155. Price could continue to find support around 0.7030.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around the diagonal support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and consolidate within a horizontal channel at 0.8960-0.9075 and within a tightening triangle pattern. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidations and if price closes out of either consolidation (break-out trade). If the EURGBP breaks to the downside, price may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.8935 and 0.8885.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1270, 1.1305, 1.1350, 1.1440 and 1.1480.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD found support around the moving averages. Price has since been bearish though and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2480, 1.2535, 1.2605, 1.2695, 1.2735 and 1.2795.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average and is now moving lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price action has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6745 and 0.6785. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been up-trending but is currently moving within a tight horizontal channel at 1.3565-1.3610. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3500 and 1.3415.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed off the horizontal resistance at 0.9955 and the diagonal resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The USDCHF has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9855-0.9955. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). Selling opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bullish. Price has swung above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the recent downtrend may be over. The USDJPY is now ranging between the recent swing low at 110.20 and the horizontal resistance at 111.45. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the shorter-term moving average and the previous horizontal resistance at 1264.35. GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1264.35, 1255.65 and 1249.75. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1278.10.

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