TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 21, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD is down-trending. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous swing low at 0.7150, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal level at 0.7200. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.7085.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US GDP and durable goods orders figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal level at 0.9010 and around the trend support area. The EURGBP could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9065 and 0.9075.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish and has closed above the consolidation resistance area. The EURUSD is above the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the previous consolidation resistance at 1.1435 and around the moving averages. Price may continue to find resistance around 1.1480.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US GDP and durable goods orders figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and has been finding resistance around 1.2700. The GBPUSD is consolidating between the diagonal support area and the horizontal resistance at 1.2700 (ascending triangle). Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the pattern and if the GBPUSD closes out of the pattern (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price could break to the upside. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2795 and 1.2820.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. US GDP and durable goods orders figures will be announced at 1330 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.6730 and the diagonal support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US GDP and durable goods orders figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3450 and 1.3415.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US GDP and durable goods orders figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. Canadian retail sales and GDP figures will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish and has been finding support around 0.9865 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9860, 0.9905 and 0.9950. If price closes below the horizontal support at 0.9860, the USDCHF may attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US GDP and durable goods orders figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. The USDJPY could find resistance around 111.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US GDP and durable goods orders figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has swung higher. Price is up-trending again. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal levels at 1255.60, 1249.75 and 1241.55, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

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