TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 20, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and has since swung lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are starting to widen, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous swing low at 0.7150, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price closed above the horizontal channel resistance at 0.9010 and has since moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is above the recent consolidation area, has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish, all suggesting that price may attempt another bullish move. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance area at 0.9010, around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8960 and 0.8935. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9065 and 0.9075.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. The BOE will release bank rate votes and a monetary policy statement at 1200 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.1440. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1310 and 1.1440.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has reversed off the diagonal support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2480, 1.2535, 1.2680, 1.2705, 1.2795 and 1.2820.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. The BOE will release bank rate votes and a monetary policy statement at 1200 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD has swung below the recent consolidation and the moving are becoming bearish, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 0.6775 and around the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend support area and has since swung higher. The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3440 and 1.3415.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.9950 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9865, 0.9905, 0.9955, 0.9980 and 1.0005.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY closed below the horizontal support at 112.25 and has since moved lower. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that the USDJPY may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 112.30 and 112.65 and around the bearish moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has found support around 1241.50 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The recent bearish move was strong. GOLD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirming the indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities  may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1228.50, 1234.00, 1241.50, 1249.75 and 1.255.60.

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