TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 19, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level. Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Selling opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. The moving averages are tightening and becoming bullish, signalling that the AUDUSD may fail to swing lower. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.7170 and 0.7150. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7245 and 0.7295.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

FOMC is at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8960-0.9010. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURGBP closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9065 and 0.9075. A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8935, 0.8880 and 0.8865.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bullish and has moved above the bearish channel resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1305, 1.1385, 1.1395, 1.1410 and 1.1440.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

FOMC is at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bullish and has recently reversed off the previous horizontal support at 1.2705 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look indecisive but is slightly bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling the upside momentum. Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.2680, 1.2705, 1.2795 and 1.2820.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. FOMC is at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to look indecisive. Price action is forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern though and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that the NZDUSD may attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal level at 0.6840 and the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6875, 0.6905 and 0.6970.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

FOMC is at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC. A GDP figure for New Zealand will be released at 2145 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend support area and the shorter-term moving average and has since swung higher. The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3440 and 1.3415, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. Price could continue to find resistance around 1.3495.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. FOMC is at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9865, 0.9905, 0.9955, 0.9980, 1.000 and 1.0005.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

FOMC is at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been finding support around the horizontal support at 112.30. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 112.25 and 113.15. If the USDJPY closes below the horizontal support at 112.25, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

FOMC is at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the horizontal level at 1249.75 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD has since closed above the resistance level and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1249.75, 1241.55 and 1234.00.

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