TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 17, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, all signalling that the AUDUSD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous range support area at 0.7180, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7245 and 0.7275.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been finding support around the diagonal support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and consolidate. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.8885, 0.8935, 0.9015 and 0.9065.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the recent lows and horizontal level at 1.1270. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price action has formed a bearish channel though and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that price could attempt a move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1310 and 1.1320, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.1270 and the channel support area.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2480, 1.2680 and 1.2705.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.6840 and 0.6875 and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.6775 and 0.6755.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been reversing off the symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas. Price continues to be indecisive and consolidate within a symmetrical triangle. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the triangle and if the USDCAD closes out of the triangle (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.3415 and 1.3440. A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3330 and 1.3265.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish but continues to be indecisive. Price action has formed an aggressive bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous swing high at 0.9955, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.000 and 1.0005. The USDCHF may continue to find resistance around 0.9980.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal support at 113.20.The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal support at 113.20 and the horizontal resistance at 113.65. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price breaks out of the range. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 113.75 and 114.00. A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 112.90 and 112.70.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has reversed off the horizontal support at 1234.00 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a clear diagonal resistance area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that GOLD may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 1241.55 and around the diagonal resistance area. A swing lower may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1234.00 and 1228.50. If price closes above the diagonal resistance area, GOLD could attempt a bullish move higher.