TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 14, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD has been bearish and has re-entered the recent consolidation area. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7180 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7245. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7275 and 0.7295.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has reversed off the trend support area. Price has been up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.8935, 0.9015, 0.9065 and 0.9075.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1275, 1.1305, 1.1395, 1.1400, 1.1410 and 1.1440.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 1.2680. The GBPUSD was down-trending but is now indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2480, 1.2680 and 1.2700.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the NZDUSD may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6840 and 0.6875. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal support area at 0.6755.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3265, 1.3320, 1.3415 and 1.3440.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9865, 0.9905, 0.9915, 0.9950 and 1.0005.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish but continues to be indecisive. The USDJPY recent reversed off the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 112.70, 112.90, 113.20, 113.80 and 114.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD was finding support around the range support area. As also suggested, price moved below the range support and has since been moving lower. GOLD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish, signalling that price may move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous range support area, around the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1234.00 and 1228.50.