TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 13, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the range resistance area. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal levels at 0.7180 and 0.7240. Price is attempting a move above the range resistance area and the moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that the AUDUSD could move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the range resistance area at 0.7240, around the identified diagonal support area and around the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7275, 0.7290 and 0.7340.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been up-trending and continues to be in a retrace phase. Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8935. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways and the EURGBP is below the moving averages, all signalling that an attempt to swing higher may fail. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9015, 0.9065 and 0.9075, around the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The ECB will announce the official bank rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1275, 1.1305, 1.1400, 1.1410 and 1.1440.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The ECB will announce the official bank rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bullish and has retraced a good portion of the recent bearish move. Price is above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the downtrend may be over. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2480, 1.2680, 1.2700, 1.2795, 1.2820 and 1.2840.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the support area at 0.6840. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.6840-0.6905. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the NZDUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.6970. A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6815 and 0.6755.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been reversing around the horizontal levels at 1.3320 and 1.3360 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3265, 1.3320, 1.3360, 1.3415 and 1.3440.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCHF is indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the indecisive moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9865, 0.9905, 0.9940 and 0.9950.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 112.30, 112.70, 112.90, 113.15, 113.50, 113.80 and 114.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 1242.15 and the horizontal resistance at 1249.75. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD closes out of the range (break-out trade).