TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 12, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD has become indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7180 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7240. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7275 and 0.7295.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed around the 38.2% Fib level. Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the horizontal support at 0.9015 and around the trend support area. The EURGBP could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9075.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has found support around the horizontal support at 1.1305 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD has moved below the recent bullish channel, signalling that the upside direction may now be over. Price is looking indecisive again. The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1275, 1.1305, 1.1400 and 1.1410.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the previous channel support area and the 38.2% Fib level. The GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2535, 1.2620 and 1.2680.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.6840 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6905. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.6815 and 0.6755. A break to the upside may find resistance around the recent highs at 0.6970.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD is moving within a bullish channel but is also indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the channel support area and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3440, 1.3415, 1.3360 and 1.3320.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The USDCHF is above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the recent downside momentum may be over. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9865, 0.9905, 0.9940 and 1.0005.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to lack trend direction and be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 112.30, 112.70, 112.90, 113.25, 113.80 and 114.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding support around the longer-term moving average. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling that buying momentum is weakening. Buying opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1242.15, 1234.00 and 1228.50. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 1249.75.