TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 11, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the recent swing low at 0.7180. The AUDUSD is slightly below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that price could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7240, 0.7275 and 0.7295. The AUDUSD could continue to find support around the horizontal support area at 0.7180.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is up-trending. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the trend support area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9075.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK average earnings index figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has bounced off the channel support area. Price continues to be indecisive but move within a bullish channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and around the horizontal levels at 1.1275, 1.1305, 1.1320, 1.1410 and 1.1440.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has swung lower and is down-trending. The GBPUSD is below the recent bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous channel support area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. The GBPUSD may continue to find support around the lows at 1.2535.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK average earnings index figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. A US PPI figure will be released at 1330.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing around the longer-term moving average. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.6840 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6900. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6815 and 0.6755. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the highs at 0.6970.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. The Governor of the RBNZ will speak at 1915 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price action has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that the USDCAD may move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the previous resistance levels at 1.3360 and 1.3320, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3440 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the shorter-term moving average. The USDCHF is down-trending. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9905, 0.9920 and 0.9935. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 0.9875.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish. The USDJPY has swung above the bearish channel and the moving averages, suggesting that the recent downtrend is now over. Price is looking indecisive again. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 112.65, 112.90 and 113.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 1249.75.