TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 10, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish and has formed a swing low below the consolidation support area. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the AUDUSD could swing lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7240 and 0.7270. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7200 and 0.7180.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed above the consolidation resistance area and has since been bullish. The EURGBP is above the consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price may start up-trending. Price action has also formed a bullish channel – confirming the upside momentum. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous resistance at 0.8935, around the channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. A manufacturing production figure will be announced at the same time.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the EURUSD could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous resistance levels at 1.1420 and 1.1400, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. Price could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.1460.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD found resistance around the channel resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and move within a bearish channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around the horizontal levels at 1.2680, 1.2700, 1.2795, 1.2820 and 1.2840.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. A manufacturing production figure will be announced at the same time.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6815, 0.6840 and 0.6970.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the 61.8% Fib level. The USDCAD is up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3265 and 1.3240 and around the 61.8% Fib level. The bullish moving averages are tightening, signalling that price may struggle to swing higher. The USDCAD may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3320 and 1.3360 and around the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the USDCHF could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9905, 0.9920 and 0.9930.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the channel resistance area and has swung lower. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 112.70, 112.90 and 113.25. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 112.30 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed off the shorter-term moving average and has since swing higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1243.80 and 1234.00.