TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 06, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7200, 0.7275, 0.7295 and 0.7340.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. The Chair of the Fen will speak at 2345 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8935 and has since moved below the bullish channel support area. The EURGBP is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.8865 and the recent swing high at 0.8935. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance).

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been rejected around the horizontal level at 1.1310 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1270, 1.1275, 1.1310, 1.1400 and 1.1420.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. The Chair of the Fen will speak at 2345 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has moved off the channel support area. Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2820, 1.2840 and 1.2860. The moving averages are starting to move sideways and tighten, suggesting market indecision. Buying opportunities could exist around the recent swing low at 1.2680 and the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. The Chair of the Fen will speak at 2345 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bearish and retrace some of the recent bullish move. Price is below the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the NZDUSD could struggle to swing higher. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6845, 0.6880 and 0.6970.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. The Chair of the Fen will speak at 2345 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The USDCAD has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are crossing bullish, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3360 and 1.3320 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A Canadian trade balance figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a BOC speech at 1335 UTC. A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. The Chair of the Fen will speak at 2345 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF continues to find resistance around the consolidation resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation and if the USDCHF closes out of the consolidation (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. The Chair of the Fen will speak at 2345 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been finding resistance around the previous swing low at 113.20 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDJPY may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous swing low at 113.25 and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 112.70 and 112.30.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC. The Chair of the Fen will speak at 2345 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average. GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance at 1228.50 and around the trend support area. Price could find resistance around the recent swing high at 1240.75.