TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 04, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the AUDUSD could uptrend. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7340. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.7390.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

An Australian GDP figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The EURGBP is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may start up-trending. Price action has also formed a potential bullish channel. Long opportunities could exist around the previous range resistance at 0.8920, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0915 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1270, 1.1275, 1.1305, 1.1400, 1.1420 and 1.1460.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and price is moving within the channel. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the recent swing high at 1.2840. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 1.2700 and around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0915 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to be bullish and move higher. The NZDUSD is above the recent consolidation area and is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.6880.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and widening and price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting that the USDCAD may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.3240 and 1.3250 and around any of the key Fib levels. Price may stall or reverse around the key horizontal support levels at 1.3160 and 1.3140.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 0.9920-1.0005. Price is also moving within a symmetrical triangle. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation and if the USDCHF closes out of the consolidation (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the previous support at 1.0045.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 112.75, 113.20 and 113.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. GOLD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous resistance at 1228.50, around the bullish moving averages and around the diagonal support area.