TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 28, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7200 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7275. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the recent lows at 0.7170. A break to the upside could find resistance around the recent highs at 0.7335.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Fed Chair at 1700 UTC. An Australian private capital expenditure figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8880. Price continues to move within a bearish channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal level at 0.8880 and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.8825. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

UK stress test results will be released today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price has swung below the recent bearish channel support area, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1325 and 1.1375.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Fed Chair at 1700 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal support at 1.2730. The GBPUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 1.2770, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. Price may continue to find support around the horizontal support at 1.2730.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

UK stress test results will be released today. A US preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC. This is followed by a speech by the Fed Chair at 1700 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has moved above the channel resistance area and has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.6755-0.6815. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.6845, 0.6865 and 0.6880. A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal support at 0.6705.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Fed Chair at 1700 UTC. A New Zealand business confidence figure will be released at 0000 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been bullish. Price continues to move within a bullish channel and uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous resistance at 1.3250 and around the channel support area. The USDCAD may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3320 and around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Fed Chair at 1700 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to move off the channel resistance area and around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is moving within a bullish channel and is slowly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9955, 0.9935 and 0.9920. A bullish could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.0045.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Fed Chair at 1700 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the bullish direction may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 113.65 and 113.10 and around the trend support area. The USDJPY may find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 114.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Fed Chair at 1700 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD closed below the consolidation support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that GOLD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous support levels at 1218.20 and 1220.20, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified diagonal resistance area.