TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 26, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7220, 0.7265 and 0.7335.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been finding support around the bearish channel support area. Price has been slightly bearish and is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8870 and 0.8880 and around the channel resistance area. The EURGBP may continue to find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8825 and 0.8770.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today. The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1830 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish. The EURUSD has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all suggesting that price could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 1.1365, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1420 and 1.1460. The EURUSD could find support around the horizontal support at 1.1325 and around the channel support area.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to look indecisive but move within a bullish channel. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that the GBPUSD may attempt a bullish move. Buying opportunities could exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2765 and 1.2735. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2895 and 1.2915 and around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD closed below the consolidation area and then moved lower. Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – the NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6845 and 0.6865. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the potential channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6755 and 0.6705.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD reversed around the horizontal level at 1.3255 and has since been finding support around the channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3070, 1.3135, 1.3180, 1.3260 and 1.3315.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed above the tight range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the USDCHF could continue to be bullish. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.9955, 0.9935 and 0.9920 and around the channel support area. Price could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.0045.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The USDJPY has recently been bullish though and the moving averages are bullish, suggesting that price may attempt to start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 113.10, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the potential bullish channel support area. The USDJPY may find resistance around the channel resistance are and around the horizontal level at 113.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed off the horizontal support at 1220.15. Price continues to be indecisive (just like most USD pairs). GOLD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1220.15 and the horizontal resistance at 1228.50. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1235.75. A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal level at 1218.15.