TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 21, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD has been bearish. Price has moved below the trend support area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that upside momentum is weakening – the uptrend may now be over. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7170 and 0.7335.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP was rejected and then reversed around the recent swing high at 0.8920. Price is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the EURGBP could attempt a move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8825 and 0.8770. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance at 0.8920.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

UK inflation reports hearings is at 1000 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has reversed around the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD has formed a short-term uptrend. Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1355. The moving averages are bullish but are starting to tighten. An upside move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1460 and 1.1490.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.2870 and the longer-term moving average. The GBPUSD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.2870 and 1.2915 and around the channel resistance area. The moving averages have been crossing frequently, signalling that the GBPUSD could become indecisive. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal support levels at 1.2735 and 1.2695.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

UK inflation reports hearings is at 1000 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has reversed off the channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long could continue to exist around the channel support area. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are moving sideways, signalling that upside momentum is weakening. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6865 and 0.6880. A strong bearish move may find support around the horizontal support at 0.6705.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been bullish. Price action has formed another swing higher – the USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the horizontal levels at 1.3255 and 1.3215 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.3315 and around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the previous support at 0.9955 and around the shorter-term moving average. The USDCHF is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the USDCHF may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.9955. Price may find support around the recent lows at 0.9920.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish and has been retracing some of the recent bearish move. The USDJPY continues to look a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 112.30, 113.05 and 113.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD is currently moving sideways. Price is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are starting to move sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1226.65 and 1235.75.