TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 16, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.7295. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and have a general sideways direction. The AUDUSD is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.7170 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7295. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been bullish and has swung above the recent bearish channel. Price action is forming a swing higher and the moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, all signalling that the EURGBP could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8795, 0.8770 and 0.8740. Price could continue to find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.8885.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level. The EURUSD continues to be in a retrace phase, after the bearish swing lower. The moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1215, 1.1270, 1.1365, 1.1450 and 1.1490.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0930 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2695, 1.2735, 1.2835 and 1.2915. The GBPUSD has formed a bearish channel, suggesting that price could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 0.6795 and around the channel support area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous resistance at 1.3145 and around the bullish channel support area. An attempt to start swinging higher could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3215 and 1.3260.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.0045. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9950, 1.0040 and 1.0110. Price may start down-trending within the identified bearish channel.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has reversed around the previous horizontal support at 113.65 and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDJPY could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal level at 113.65 and around the diagonal resistance area. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 113.25, 113.05 and 112.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Opportunities to go short could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the horizontal level at 1225.75 and around the trend resistance area. The moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that a bearish move may struggle to swing lower. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 1197.90.