TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 15, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend support area. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and have been moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.7170 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7295. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. These are followed by a Fed Chair speech at 1630 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed off the channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to move within a bearish channel but is now looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8740, 0.8770 and 0.8795. The EURGBP may start ranging between the recent lows at 0.8660 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8740.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD continues to retrace some of the recent bearish move. Shorting opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.1365. The moving averages are about to cross bullish, suggesting that an attempt to swing low could fail. A bearish move could reverse around the horizontal level at 1.1305 and around the moving averages.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC. These are followed by a Fed Chair speech at 1630 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been finding resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1.3035. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2695, 1.2835, 1.2915, 1.3040 and 1.3170.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. These are followed by a Fed Chair speech at 1630 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The NZDUSD is above the range resistance area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the uptrend could now continue. Price action has also formed a bullish channel. Long opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance at 0.6795, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the the channel support area. A strong bullish move could find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. These are followed by a Fed Chair speech at 1630 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving off the longer-term moving average but has also been finding resistance around the recent high at 1.3255. The USDCAD has been up-trending within a large bullish channel. Price may be entering a retrace phase after a bullish move to the channel resistance area. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3215, 1.3170 and 1.3145. The USDCAD may continue to find resistance around the highs at 1.3255 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair speech at 2300 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has bounced off the horizontal level at 1.0045. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9955, 1.0045 and 1.0110 and around the diagonal resistance areas.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. These are followed by a Fed Chair speech at 1630 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is below the recent horizontal channel and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the USDJPY may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support area at 113.65, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the previous trend support area (as resistance). A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 113.00 and 112.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. These are followed by a Fed Chair speech at 1630 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the recent lows at 1197.90. GOLD has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Opportunities to go short may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the horizontal level at 1225.75 and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support and lows at 1197.90.