TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 14, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed at the longer-term moving average. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7120, 0.7170 and 0.7295.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair speech at 2300 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be announced at 0030 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has closed below the range support area. Price action has formed a potential bearish channel and the moving averages are crossing bearish, suggesting that the EURGBP could continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 0.8690, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent low at 0.8660 and the channel support area.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.
A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and the 38.2% Fib level. The EURUSD has formed a clear swing lower and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that price may attempt to swing lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1310 and 1.1365. The EURUSD may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1.1215.
The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair speech at 2300 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been finding resistance at 1.3030 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently tightening – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2695, 1.2830, 1.3035 and 1.3170.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by a Fed Chair speech at 2300 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been bullish and is currently testing the range resistance area. Price is up-trending but has been ranging (0.6705-0.6795). Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair speech at 2300 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been reversing off the shorter-term moving average. Price continues to uptrend and be bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.3170 and 1.3145 and around the channel support area. The USDCAD could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.3260 and the channel resistance area.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.
US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair speech at 2300 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and is looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are starting to tighten and move sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0040 and 1.0110.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.
US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair speech at 2300 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel. The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and moving withing the horizontal channel at 113.65-114.20. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDPY closes out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 113.55 and 113.05.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.
US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Chair speech at 2300 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has continued to be bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1212.50. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 1197.90.
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