TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 12, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD has been bearish. Price has moved below all key Fib levels and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all suggesting that the uptrend may now be over. The AUDUSD is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.7180 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7295. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7120 and 0.7070.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has become bullish and is retracing some of the recent bearish move. Price is below a number of key support levels, signalling that the EURGBP could attempt a bearish move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8795 and 0.8800. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent lows at 0.8690.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish. The EURUSD has closed below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that price may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1305 and 1.1365 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the GBPUSD has been bearish. Price continues to be indecisive though. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2695, 1.2835, 1.2955, 1.3030 and 1.3170.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 0.6685. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling that upside momentum is weakening – price may struggle to swing higher. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the highs and horizontal resistance at 0.6795.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been bullish and has moved higher. Price continues to be above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the USDCAD could continue to uptrend. Long opportunities may exist around the previous resistance levels at 1.3170 and 1.3145 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent high at 1.3230.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0095 and 1.0070.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung higher. The USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 113.70 and 113.55 and around the trend support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that GOLD may start down-trending. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous consolidation support at 1212.50 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. GOLD may stall or reverse around the channel support area.