TriumphFX Inter-day Forex Analysis – Daily Charts – November 12, 2018

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, price reversed around the bearish channel resistance area and then found support around the channel support area. The AUDUSD has since moved above the channel resistance area. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7040 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7290. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may break to the downside of the range. A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7470 and 0.7665.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.   The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

EURGBP – Daily Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8635, 0.8700 and 0.9085. Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages and around the support and resistance areas of the potential bearish channel.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019.

EURUSD – Daily Chart 

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the range resistance area at 1.1800. Price has since been bearish and has broken to the downside of the range (1.1335-1.1800). The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous range support area at 1.1335, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until the summer of 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

The GBPUSD has become indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2690 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3270. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that price could break to the downside. Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Trade and other agreements are finalising between the EU and the UK. A final deal and departure from the EU may give added strength to the GBP, as economic and political uncertain slows. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

GOLD has been finding support and has been struggling to swing lower – it may be time for price to reverse and become bullish. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish. Price action has also formed a potential bullish channel – confirming the possible reversal. Buying opportunities may exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1183.40 and 1173.80. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1235.20 and 1242.80.

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