TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 06, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed off the 38.2% Fib level and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price could swing higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.7180 and 0.7150. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.7255.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8795, 0.8820 and 0.8850. The EURGBP may continue to find support around 0.8735.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. The EURUSD is ranging between the recent lows at 1.1305 and the horizontal level at 1.1450. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that upside momentum may continue. If the GBPUSD starts retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3030 and 1.2955. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3085 and 1.3230.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is still above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, all signalling that the NZDUSD could attempt a bullish move higher. Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.6605. The NZDUSD could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.6685.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

New Zealand employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 2145 UTC today. This is followed by an inflation expectations figure at 0200 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed around the trend support area. Price continues to be indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3050 and 1.3170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9940, 0.9960, 0.9970 and 1.0090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has closed above the range resistance and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that the USDJPY may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous range resistance at 113.35, around the trend support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1212.50, 1235.80, 1237.75 and 1243.25.