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TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 05, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish but is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the AUDUSD may attempt a bullish move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous bullish channel resistance area (as support), around the longer-term moving average and around the previous resistance levels at 0.7150 and 0.7120. An attempt to move higher may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent highs at 0.7255.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. The RBA will release a rate statement at 0330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The EURGBP has swung below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8795, 0.8820 and 0.8850. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.8740.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK services PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD has been finding support around the moving averages (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has been moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages are also moving sideways – confirming the potential indecision. The EURUSD is ranging between the recent lows at 1.1305 and the horizontal level at 1.1450. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around the horizontal level at 1.2955. Price is currently moving within a tight range at 1.2955-1.3030. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price could break to the upside. If price breaks to the downside, the GBPUSD may reverse around the longer-term moving average.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK services PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.6605 and 0.6570. An attempt to swing higher may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.6685.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price found support around the trend support area and has since been bullish. The USDCAD has been up-trending. The moving averages have crossed bearish though and are widening, suggesting that upside momentum is weakening – the uptrend could be over. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2990, 1.3050 and 1.3170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1310 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the horizontal level at 0.9960. Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9940, 0.9960, 0.9970 and 1.0090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been finding resistance around the horizontal level at 113.40 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently tight – confirming the current indecision. The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal level at 112.60 and the horizontal resistance at 113.40. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1212.50, 1235.80, 1237.75 and 1243.25.