TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 02, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish and has swung above the recent consolidation area. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price could start up-trending. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous bullish channel resistance area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7150 and 0.7120.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has continued to be bearish but is currently reversing off the horizontal support at 0.8755 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has swung below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the EURGBP may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8820 and 0.8855. Price may continue to find support around the horizontal support at 0.8755.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has swung above the bearish channel resistance area. As also suggested, price has been finding resistance around 1.1410. The EURUSD is moving above recent swing highs and the moving averages are becoming bullish, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1410, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous channel resistance area (as support). A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1445, 1.1545 and 1.1605.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish and swing move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has swung above a number of key resistance levels and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price could uptrend. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2955 and 1.2835 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. Price could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3030, 1.3085 and 1.3230.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been bullish and has broken to the upside of the recent consolidation. Price is above the recent indecision area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the NZDUSD may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.6605 and 0.6570 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. Price may continue to find resistance around 0.6680.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been bearish. Price is moving below the trend support area, suggesting that the recent uptrend could be over. The moving averages are crossing bearish, signalling that the USDCAD may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous trend support (as resistance), around the previous horizontal support at 1.3075 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A strong bearish move may find support around the horizontal support at 1.2990.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the previous swing high at 1.0025. The USDCHF has since been bearish though and has moved below that level. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9940, 0.9960, 1.0025 and 1.0090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has reversed off the horizontal level at 112.60 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 112.60 and 113.40.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been rejected at the horizontal level at 1237.75. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1212.50, 1237.75 and 1243.25.

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