TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 01, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to move within a consolidation area and be indecisive. Recent price action has been bullish and has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that the AUDUSD may attempt a break to the upside of the consolidation area. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous resistance areas at 0.7115 and 0.7125, around the moving averages and around the channel support area. Price may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the consolidation resistance at 0.7150.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. Australian retail sales is at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The EURGBP has swung below the trend support area and the moving averages, suggesting that the uptrend is now over. Price is currently finding support around 0.8820 (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are becoming bearish and the EURGBP is below key support levels, all suggesting that price could continue to be bearish. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8855 and 0.8895, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous trend support area (as resistance). The EURGBP could continue to find support at 0.8820 and around the horizontal level at 0.8755.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. The BOE will release an inflation report, a rate statement and a monetary policy summary at 1200 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has failed to reach the channel support area and is currently bullish. Price continues to move within a bearish channel but the EURUSD is struggling to reach the channel support area, suggesting that the downtrend may becoming to an end. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A bullish break-out move above the channel may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1410, 1.1430 and 1.1450.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bullish and has swung above the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is above the recent channel and the most recent swing high, signalling that the GBPUSD could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 1.2835, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous channel resistance area (as support). A strong bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2955, 1.3030 and 1.3085.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The BOE will release an inflation report, a rate statement and a monetary policy summary at 1200 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish but continues to move within the current consolidation area. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and have been moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6515, 0.6570 and 0.6605. The moving averages are slightly bullish and price action has formed a short series of higher swing lows, signalling that the NZDUSD may attempt a bullish break-out above the consolidation resistance area (0.6610).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the moving averages and then formed a swing higher. The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.3115 and 1.3080 and around the channel support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.0025. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent highs at 1.0090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has been bearish and has re-entered the consolidation area. Price has become indecisive again. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 111.40, 112.60, 112.75 and 113.40.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that GOLD may swing lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the previous support at 1227.35, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 1237.75. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1212.50.