TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 31, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7025, 0.7055, 0.7115 and 0.7150.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish. Price continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous resistance at 0.8895 and around the trend support area. The EURGBP may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 0.8940.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed around the moving averages and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). As also suggested, the EURUSD is now finding support around the recent lows at 1.1335. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1415, 1.1430 and 1.1450. The EURUSD could continue to find support around the horizontal support at 1.1335 and around the channel support area.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has swung lower and has been bearish. The GBPUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Price is struggling to reach the channel support area though, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the previous swing low at 1.2780. If the GBPUSD breaks to the upside of the channel, price may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.2835 and 1.2955.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.6570 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6470, 0.6570 and 0.6610.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed again around the horizontal resistance at 1.3150. Price has been up-trending but is currently ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3080 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3150. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that price may break to the upside. If price breaks to the downside, the USDCAD may be rejected or reverse around the trend support area.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a BOC speech at 2015 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF continues to uptrend and be bullish. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 1.0025, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.
The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will speak at 1715 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found resistance around the horizontal resistance at 113.35. The USDJPY has swung above the recent consolidation area, signalling that price may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 112.85, 112.75 and 112.60. Price may continue to find resistance around 113.35.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bearish. Price is below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous support levels at 1220.45 and 1227.35 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
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