TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 30, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.7055. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7025, 0.7055, 0.7105 and 0.7150.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. An Australian CPI figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish but has been finding resistance around 0.8895 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to uptrend and be bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8855 and 0.8820. The EURGBP could continue to find resistance around 0.8895.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average. Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are tightening and are starting to move sideways, signalling that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1415, 1.1430 and 1.1445. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.1335 and around the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD continues to move within a bearish channel but recent price action has been sideways. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. An attempt to swing lower could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1.2780 and the channel support area. A break to the upside of the bearish channel could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.2875 and 1.2955.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6430, 0.6470, 0.6570 and 0.6605.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the longer-term moving average and the 38.2% Fib level. As also suggested, price then found resistance around the recent highs at 1.3150. The USDCAD is starting to look a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to move sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.3150 and 1.3080 and around the diagonal support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bullish and is currently attempting a bullish move higher. The moving averages are bullish and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9960, 0.9955 and 0.9940. The USDCHF may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY initially found resistance around the diagonal resistance area. Price has since been bullish and has moved above a number of key resistance levels. The buying momentum could continue but the moving averages are still tight and are moving sideways – signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 112.60, 112.70, 112.90 and 113.35.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1216.60, 1220.45, 1227.40, 1237.75 and 1243.25. If GOLD closes below the horizontal support at 1216.65, price may attempt a bearish move lower.