TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 29, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD has been bullish. As identified in Friday’s chart analysis, the bullish move has been finding resistance around the horizontal level at 0.7105. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7025, 0.7055, 0.7105 and 0.7150.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous resistance at 0.8855 and around the trend support area. The EURGBP may find resistance around the recent highs at 0.8895.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has reversed around the bearish channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD continues to be bearish and downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1430 and 1.1445. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.1335 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed off the bearish channel support area. Price is now in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the previous support levels at 1.2870 and 1.2955. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2780 and around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the bearish channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD has since been bullish and has swung above the channel support area. The moving averages are moving sideways and are starting to tighten, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous resistance area of the bearish channel (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.6425, 0.6470, 0.6500, 0.6570 and 0.6610.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. As also suggested, the USDCAD has found support around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support). Price action has formed a swing higher and is up-trending. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around any of the key Fib levels. The USDCAD may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3150.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF was rejected at the shorter-term moving average and then swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has since moved below the moving averages and the bullish channel support, signalling that upside momentum is weakening – the uptrend could be over. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9940, 0.9955 and 1.0025.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDJPY has formed a bearish move lower. Price closed below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the USDJPY may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 111.95, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 112.75 and 112.85.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD initially formed a bullish move in Friday’s trading sessions but has since been bearish and has returned to the consolidation area. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1227.35 and the recent swing high at 1243.25. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD closes out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, GOLD could find support around the horizontal levels at 1220.45 and 1216.60.