TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 26, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The AUDUSD is below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all suggesting that price may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous support levels at 0.7040 and 0.7055, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

An advanced GDP figure for the US will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has found resistance around the channel resistance area. The EURGBP continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8855, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. Price could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8880 and the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

 

The EURUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1385, 1.1435 and 1.1445. The EURUSD may continue to find support around 1.1360.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

An advanced GDP figure for the US will be released at 1230 UTC today. The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has swung lower and has been finding support around the channel support area. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2870 and 1.2955, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. The GBPUSD could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

An advanced GDP figure for the US will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the previous support at 0.6535 and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is now finding support around the channel support area (as also suggested). Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous support at 0.6495, around the channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.6535. The NZDUSD may continue to find support around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

An advanced GDP figure for the US will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price initially found resistance around the diagonal resistance area. The USDCAD has since been bullish and is attempting to swing higher. Price is looking indecisive and is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.2990 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3120. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the identified diagonal support and resistance areas.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

An advanced GDP figure for the US will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher. Price action has formed a potential bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous resistance at 0.9985, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent highs at 1.0015 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

An advanced GDP figure for the US will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the bearish channel resistance area. Price is moving within a bearish channel but is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around the horizontal levels at 111.65, 111.95, 112.75, 112.90 and 113.35.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

An advanced GDP figure for the US will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has become decisive again. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1227.35-1237.80. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1220.45 and 1216.60.