TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 25, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the horizontal support at 0.7055. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7040, 0.7055, 0.7105 and 0.7150.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP reversed bullish off the longer-term moving average and is now finding resistance around the recent swing high at 0.8855 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8810 and 0.8800. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.8855 and the channel resistance area.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
The European Central Bank will announce the official bank rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the moving averages and has since been bearish. The EURUSD continues to downtrend and swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1435 and 1.1445. An attempt to swing lower could find support around the recent lows at 1.1385.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
The European Central Bank will announce the official bank rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC. A US durable goods orders figure will also be released at 1230 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). As also suggested, price has been finding support around the bearish channel support area. The GBPUSD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the previous swing low at 1.2955 and around the channel resistance area. The GBPUSD may find support around the recent lows at 1.2870 and the channel support area.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the NZDUSD could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous range support at 0.6535, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.6495.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has found support around the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bearish and price action is building a number of resistance levels, all suggesting that the uptrend may now be over. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal support and resistance areas, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2920, 1.2990 and 1.3120.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.75%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will continue to raise rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The USDCHF may reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9925, 0.9940 and 0.9985.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.
A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Just like some other USD pairs, the USDJPY continues to be indecisive. Price action has formed a potential bearish channel though and the moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, all signalling that the USDJPY may become bearish. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 112.90. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the recent lows at 111.65.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.
A US durable goods orders figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the moving averages and has since been bullish. Price is now finding resistance around the recent swing high (as also suggested). GOLD continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price could move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1229.50 and 1227.40. Price could continue to find resistance around the highs at 1237.80.
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