TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 24, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has been retracing some of the recent bearish move. The AUDUSD is starting to look indecisive again. The moving averages are starting to move sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7040, 0.7055 and 0.7150.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8800. The EURGBP continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal level at 0.8800 and around the channel support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8855 and the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD continues to move sideways and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are tight. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.1435, 1.1445, 1.1545 and 1.1605. If price closes below the horizontal support at 1.1435, the EURUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around the bearish channel resistance area. Price continues to be bearish and move within a bearish channel – the GBPUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3030 and 1.3085. An attempt to swing lower could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.2955 and 1.2930.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price found resistance around the previous trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive though. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.6535 and the recent swing high at 0.6605. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal level at 0.6500.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3120. The USDCAD continues to be in a retrace phase. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3065, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend support area. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that buying momentum is weakening. An attempt to swing higher could fail around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3065.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Bank of Canada will release a rate statement and a monetary policy report at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1515 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9940 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9980. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal level at 0.9925.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the horizontal support at 112.00. Just like other USD pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages once again confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 112.00-112.90. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 113.35. A break to the downside could find support around the recent lows at 111.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). As also suggested, GOLD has been finding support around the previous horizontal resistance at 1229.50. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the previous symmetrical triangle pattern and around the horizontal levels at 1229.50, 1220.50 and 1216.60. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent highs at 1237.80.