TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 23, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent range and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the AUDUSD could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous range support area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 0.7150. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support at 0.7040.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8830, 0.8820 and 0.8800, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8855 and around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1520 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.1540 and then at the horizontal level at 1.1445. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.1435, 1.1445, 1.1545 and 1.1605. If price closes below the horizontal support at 1.1435, the EURUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.3085 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 1.3015, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3085. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 1.2930 and around the bearish channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1520 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has found support around the horizontal level at 0.6535. Price has moved below the moving averages and trend support area, signalling that the recent uptrend could now be over. The NZDUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.6535 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6605. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been reversing off the horizontal levels at 1.3085 and 1.3120 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. If price continues to retrace, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.3085 and 1.3065, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend support area. The USDCAD may be rejected or reverse around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3120.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to find resistance around 0.9975. The USDCHF has been up-trending but is currently moving sideways and is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling the market indecision. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9945 and 0.9925 and around any of the key Fib levels. An attempt to swing higher could fail around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance at 0.9975.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price reversed around the horizontal level at 112.80 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY has been moving within a bullish channel and is currently at the channel support area. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the recent upside direction may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 112.00 and 111.65. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 112.70 and 112.90 and around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD reversed around the horizontal level at 1220.45 (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since been bullish. GOLD is above the recent consolidation area, signalling that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous consolidation resistance area, around the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1229.50 and 1231.60.