TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 22, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As identified in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing around the horizontal levels at 0.7090 and 0.7150. The AUDUSD has become indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the indecision, they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7090 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7150. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7040. A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7200 and 0.7240.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and lack and lack trend direction. The moving averages have crossed bullish and price action has formed a series of higher swing lows, all suggesting that the EURGBP could swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8800 and 0.8755, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8820 and 0.8830.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the range support area. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1435, 1.1445, 1.1530, 1.1540 and 1.1605.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD has been rejected at the previous support at 1.3085 and the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the GBPUSD could attempt to swing lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 1.3085, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3015 and 1.2930.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish and has swung above the recent swing high at 0.6595. Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the NZDUSD is up-trending. If price starts retracing, long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6535 and 0.6495.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish. The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous resistance levels at 1.3085 and 1.3065, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3120.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has continued to be bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and is now starting to retrace. The USDCHF is up-trending. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. The USDCHF may continue to find resistance around 0.9975.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY initially found resistance around the horizontal level at 112.70. Price has since been bullish and has moved above this level. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the bullish momentum could continue. The USDJPY has also formed a bullish channel. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 112.00 and 111.65. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 112.70, 112.80, 113.35 and 113.60.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price was rejected around the horizontal level at 1231.60 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). GOLD has become indecisive. Price is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle and also between a number of horizontal levels. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation and if GOLD closes out of the consolidation (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 1207.25 and 1204.35.
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