TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 19, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price has since swung below the channel support area. The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that the recent downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 0.7150. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7100 and 0.7040.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and range between the recent lows at 0.8720 and the recent swing high at 0.8820. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1610 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish but continues to lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. The EURUSD is ranging between the lows at 1.1430 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1620. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish. The GBPUSD has swung below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3030 and 1.3085, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A strong bearish move may find support around the horizontal support at 1.2930.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1610 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed off the horizontal level at 0.6530. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6425, 0.6495, 0.6535, 0.6595 and 0.6635.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has been bullish. Price has swung above the recent highs at 1.3065 and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that the USDCAD may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. An attempt to swing higher may be rejected or reverse around the new highs at 1.3085.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
Canadian CPI and retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The USDCHF is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance at 0.9950, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal support area.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish. The USDJPY is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 111.65, 112.00, 112.70, 112.80 and 113.35.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1204.35, 1207.25, 1216.60 and 1231.60. If price closes above the horizontal resistance at 1231.60, GOLD could attempt a bullish move higher.
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