TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 18, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the horizontal levels at 0.7150 and 0.7100. The AUDUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.7100-0.7150. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the AUDUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be indecisive and range between the recent lows at 0.8725 and the recent swing high at 0.8820. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP closes out of the range (break-out trade).
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like other USD pairs, the EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1430 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1620. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been finding support around the horizontal level at 1.3085. Price continues to lack trend momentum and be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2930, 1.3030, 1.3085, 1.3230 and 1.3250.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
A UK retail sales figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price initially found support around the trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since been bearish. The NZDUSD has retraced below the trend support area and the moving averages, suggesting that upside momentum is weakening. The moving averages are moving sideways and are beginning to tighten, suggesting potential market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 0.6425, 0.6490, 0.6530, 0.6595 and 0.6635.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD continues to lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2920 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3070. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade).
The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been finding resistance around the horizontal level at 0.9950. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9850-0.9950. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCHF closes out of the channel (break-out trade).
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 112.80, 113.35 and 113.60.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has been retracing some of the recent bullish move. GOLD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1216.60 and the horizontal resistance at 1231.60. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1207.25, 1204.35 and 1196.05.
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