TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 17, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been reversing off the horizontal resistance at 0.7145 and the shorter-term moving average. Price has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the bullish momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.7100 and 0.7040. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7150 and 0.7200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has been bearish. Price is lacking trend direction and has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.8725 and the recent swing high at 0.8820. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8850 and 0.8915.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal levels at 1.1605 and 1.1620. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1435, 1.1535, 1.1605 and 1.1620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2930, 1.3030, 1.3085, 1.3230 and 1.3250.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been bullish and continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6530 and 0.6490. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.6635.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.2925 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2785, 1.2920, 1.3005, 1.3065 and 1.3075.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCHF is lacking trend direction and is indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9780, 0.9850, 0.9930 and 0.9950.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average. The USDJPY has since swung above the trend resistance area and has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 111.65 and the horizontal resistance at 112.50. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 112.80, 113.35 and 113.55. Trading opportunities could also exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 1800 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1216.60, 1207.25 and 1204.35. An attempt to swing higher could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance at 1231.60.