TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 16, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has swung above the range resistance area but has since moved back within the range. The AUDUSD continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7040, 0.7100, 0.7145 and 0.7200.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continued to find resistance around 0.8820 and then found support around the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are still bullish and widening, signalling that the EURGBP could swing higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal level at 0.8770. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.8820, 0.8855 and 0.8915.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK average earnings index figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The EURUSD was initially bullish but then reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.1605 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1435, 1.1535, 1.1605, 1.1620 and 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed off the previous bullish channel support area and the moving averages. Price is indecisive and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 1.3030, 1.3085, 1.3175 and 1.3250.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK average earnings index figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6530 and 0.6490. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.6635.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The USDCAD is below the recent trend support area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that the recent uptrend could be over. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.2925, 1.2965, 1.3005, 1.3065 and 1.3075 and around the previous trend support area (as resistance).

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bearish. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways, suggesting indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9950, 0.9850 and 0.9780.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has continued to be bearish and downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 112.50 and 112.80. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 111.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1224.55, 1216.60, 1207.25 and 1204.35. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1231.60.

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