TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 15, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the range resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The AUDUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7040 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7135. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.7200, 0.7235 and 0.7280. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP continues to look indecisive. Price has recently been bullish though and the moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the EURGBP may move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the recent lows at 0.8725. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8820, 0.8855 and 0.8915.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal level at 1.1535. The EURUSD has formed a clear swing high and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that price could uptrend. Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal level at 1.1535. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1605 and 1.1620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish and has moved below the bullish channel support area. The GBPUSD is below the recent support areas and the bullish moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the uptrend is over. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2930, 1.3030, 1.3130 and 1.3250, around the moving averages and around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance).

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the previous swing high at 0.6495. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the NZDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the previous swing high at 0.6495. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.6530.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A New Zealand CPI figure will be released at 2145 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCAD has been finding support around the previous swing high at 1.3005 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the horizontal level at 1.3005 and around the trend support area. An attempt to swing higher may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3065 and 1.3075. A break below the trend support area may find support around the horizontal support at 1.2925.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A BOC business outlook survey will be released at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to move sideways and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The USDCHF is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.9860 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9950. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the shorter-term moving average and has been bearish. The USDJPY continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 111.90, 112.50 and 112.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US retail sales figures will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that GOLD could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1216.60, 1207.25 and 1204.35.