TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 12, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the range resistance area. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 0.7040 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7125. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The EURGBP has swung above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling that the downtrend could be over. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8725, 0.8805 and 0.8855.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the previous range resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1585 and 1.1535. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1620 and 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been finding support around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3185 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3185 and 1.3125, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. The GBPUSD could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3285.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The NZDUSD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous range resistance at 0.6495 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A strong bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.6600 and 0.6635.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price is currently finding support around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price could continue to uptrend. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 1.3005, around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area. The USDCAD could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3065 and 1.3075.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are also moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9695, 0.9780, 0.9860 and 0.9950.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has swung lower and continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support levels at 112.55 and 112.80 and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 111.90.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. GOLD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1209.55, 1207.25 and 1204.35 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent highs at 1224.55.