TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 11, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 11.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD was bearish and then reversed around the recent swing low at 0.7045. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The AUDUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7045 and the recent swing high at 0.7130. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 11.10.2018 #

The EURGBP has continued to be bearish and downtrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 0.8805. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.8725.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 0900 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 11.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The EURUSD is above the recent range and the moving averages are crossing bullish, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance area at 1.1535, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the recent lows at 1.1435. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1585 and 1.1620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 11.10.2018

Price has been bullish and has been finding resistance around the channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the buying momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3190 and 1.3130, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support. The GBPUSD may continue to find resistance around the channel resistance area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3285.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 0900 UTC today. US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC. These are followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 11.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, an attempt to swing lower has failed – the NZDUSD found support around the moving averages. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. The NZDUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.6425 and the recent swing high at 0.6495. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 11.10.2018

The USDCAD has been bullish but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a number of support levels, suggesting that the USDCAD may break to the upside of the current consolidation. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3005, 1.2925 and 1.2895, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the consolidation resistance at 1.3075.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 11.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. The USDCHF has since been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.9860 (as also suggested). Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all signalling that the USDCHF could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel (0.9900 and 0.9950) and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9860 and 0.9780.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 11.10.2018

Price reversed around the trend resistance area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal levels at 112.40, 112.60 and 112.80, around the trend resistance area and around the bearish moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. These are followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 11.10.2018

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1181.70, 1185.35, 1196.05, 1204.35, 1207.25 and 1209.55.