TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 10, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 10.10.2018

Price continues to retrace and be bullish. The AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7200. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that price may struggle to swing lower. An attempt to swing lower may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.7045.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 10.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and swing lower. The EURGBP is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8805 and 0.8855. Price could continue to find support around 0.8735.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK GDP figure will be released at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD - 1010.2018

The EURUSD initially swung below the horizontal channel support area but has since been bullish. Price is now ranging between the recent swing low at 1.1435 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1535. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1585 and 1.1620. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 10.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish, all signalling that the GBPUSD could swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 1.3125, around the bullish moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal level at 1.3030. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3190 and 1.3285.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deal has been weakening the GBP but recent news suggesting that a deal can be reached by November is giving the GBP strength. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK GDP figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC. This is followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 10.10.2018

Price found support around the recent swing low at 0.6425 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD has since been bullish and has been retracing some of the recent bearish move. Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area. The bearish moving averages are tightening and are becoming more bullish, suggesting that price may struggle to swing lower. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 0.6425.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 10.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3005. The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2785, 1.2895, 1.3005 and 1.3075.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 1010.2018

The USDCHF has been up-trending but is now indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9900-0.9950. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCHF closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break-out move to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9860 and 0.9780.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDJPY - 10.10.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 113.55. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 112.80, 112.60, 112.40 and 112.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US PPI figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a US Treasury currency report.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 10.10.2018

Price has reversed again around the horizontal level at 1185.70 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1181.70, 1185.40, 1196.10, 1204.35, 1207.25 and 1209.55. If price closes below the horizontal support at 1181.70, GOLD may attempt a strong bearish move lower.